Election Day Pickin

Quote of the Day     “For the love of God, do whatever in the hell you wanna do about President or Senator, but please vote for Oliver Diaz or Jim Kitchens for Mississippi Supreme Court if they are on your ballot.”     –Travellinbaen

It seems every news website is running a prediction contest for the election results tomorrow. TB is slightly offended by this, seeing as how this site runs the premier college football pickem game on all the web. Not to be outdone, I offer you the opportunity to make your picks on the election here as well. Keep in mind, its what you think will happen, not who you are voting for necessarily. For bonus points, add in your network of choice for following returns, favorite newscaster and pundit, and whether you will consider quitting your job and/or moving to Canada if your side loses. Predictions open until 5pm Tuesday.

The categories–

Presidential electoral votes (must equal 538)

Democrats/Republicans in Senate 

Democrats/Republicans in House

Musgrove/Wicker winner

Popular vote percentage for President

Travellinbaen will be sittin at home, sippin on some red wine if my guy wins to channel my inner elitist. I’ll be watchin MSNBC and switchin over to Fox, depending on how things are goin. I like Carville best, but I’m into Olbermann right now for his righteous, leftist, indignity, and I gotta go with Shepherd Smith for favorite news reader. As for a conservative pundit, I like George Will.

I’m predicting Obama wins 53% of the popular vote and wins the electoral vote 372-166. Wicker wins MS Senate, and the Dems have 59-41 Senate advantage (counting 2 independents) and 265-164 Dem advantage in the House. If I get wiped out, again, in this election, I won’t move to Canada, though I’d relish a year in British Columbia. I may consider a move to Oregon or Colorado however. And I won’t be able to quit my job as it will probably quit me.

About travellinbaen

I'm a 40 year old lawyer living in Ridgeland, Mississippi. I'm several years and a couple hundred miles removed from most of my old running buddies so I started the blog to provide an outlet for many of the observations and ideas that used to be the subjects of our late night/happy hour/halftime conversations and arguments.
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36 Responses to Election Day Pickin

  1. larry says:

    310 – 228 Obama
    58 – 52 Dems in Senate
    260 – 169 Demms in Congress – a blind dog guess
    52% for Obama

    If Mcain wins, the electoral college will be 270 – 268. Obama still wins the pop vote at 51%

  2. ZEEK says:

    278-260 Obama (God help us)

    56-44 Dems in Senate

    240-189 Dems in House

    Wicker in close one because MS is like Pres. race options — lesser of two evils!!!!

    Popular will be closer than “Pundits” predict:

    I like MSNBC and CNN Headline News and my fave political guy(s) is Colbert and Glen Beck.

    I think we should borrow a page from Richard Pryor in Brewster’s Millions and all write in “None of the Above”!!!! Let the Revolution Begin!!!!!

  3. BR says:

    i will go with Obama to win the election
    “i hate math so i won’t give a sum on the elect cl.”
    59 to 41 for the dems in the senate
    264 to 163 for dems in the house
    (obama called me today and
    ask me to vote for musgrove i may consider
    since he was so nice on the phone), i did see
    and shake hands with both at the usm game saturday night and wiker had a better hand shake
    so i’m still undecided.

    obama wins the popular vote 47.555555

    i will also through out a upset state and say
    Mccain wins Penn. (had to through the old dog
    a bone)

  4. Feidts Follies says:

    After bermens halftime questions and McCains answers (Personally steriods in professional sports does not matter in the least to me) Obama is getting my vote.

  5. Jessie Lou says:

    I must say I agree with Zeek – None of the Above sums it up pretty well. BR – at least you have a handshake to base it on – dad always said not to trust a man with a weak handshake. Personally, it is hard for a woman in the department because most men will give a woman the wimpy handshake just because she is female which I personally hate. I once based my vote in the MS governor’s race on who called me the least.

    The race is too close to call for me. I am going to vote for Oliver and that is about the only one I am sure of.

    TB I may just write your name in – your cabinet could consist of the commentors on this blog. Just think about it……

  6. RockStarRambler says:

    Presidential electoral votes – 338/200

    Democrats/Republicans in Senate – 56/42

    Democrats/Republicans in House – 261/174

    Musgrove/Wicker winner – Wicker

    Popular vote percentage for President – 54%

    MSNBC for coverage
    Olbermann for pundit
    Shepard Smith for favorite newscaster
    Like TB, I would not permanently move to Canada, but would love to hang out in Victoria and/or Vancouver for a year or so.

  7. RMac says:

    Presidential electoral votes – 368-170

    Democrats/Republicans in Senate – 58/42

    Democrats/Republicans in House – 253/182

    Popular vote percentage for President – 53%

    PBS for coverage
    Jim Lehrer for favorite newscaster
    Tim Russert – IMO
    David Brooks – Conservative Pundit

    I lived through GWB for 8 years I’m not going anywhere. Change can only happen if you are present.

    I’m so excited I may pee in my pants! You should see the lines in the DC area, it is amazing to see so many people engaged in this election.

  8. smilyj17 says:

    Call me when its over. They all suck. Olbermans an idiot. There is a reason nobody can stand him anywhere he has worked. Even Chris Mathews hates him. I like actual fair an unbiased commentators and newspersons thus I like O Reilly. All the others suck. State sucks. Croom sucks. Obama sucks. Celebrities suck. Sweet sucks.

  9. Madd Dawg says:

    I just saw a video where a “lady” says that she is voting for Obama becaue he is going to pay for her gas and mortgage. Isn’t America great?? and it’s all FREE!!!!!! Yea!!!!! Where can I get me some of that free money?

    Rosie, I’ll match your peeing in your pants by throwing up on my desk this afternoon and possibly on my coffee table tonight while desparately trying with JD to drown out the sounds of the pundits jizzing all over themselves when referring to the Messiah tonight.
    Actually, I probably will not watch, but I certainly will not promise to move to another country like many in Hollywood did during the last two elections as this is, despite its citizens’ present lack of judgment, still the greatest country in the world (tear running down my cheek thinking of Reagan the Great.)

  10. Don’t forget to log in your votes on the musical selections over on last week’s Thursday pickin. Remember, it’s your duty as a citizen of this blog to vote and if you forego that duty, you have no grounds upon which to complain.

    MD, you voted for Diaz right?

  11. Madd Dawg says:

    I’ll never tell.

  12. Anonymous says:

    I still think there will be a riot somewhere
    Thanks for the shout out smi-LY
    I did what you told me Baen
    Looks like they are having a big party in Kenya

  13. Anonymous says:

    my bad that was a sweet post above

  14. sweet says:

    that was mine above

  15. OB says:

    I don’t know much about politics and I’m not going to pretend I do, but this is going to hurt me.

    I’m working at a company, which designs and engineers petrochemical facilites across the world and usually when the rest of the world is complaining about the price of gas and the unemployment rates I’m busier than ever. I heard yesterday here in the office that they are already cancelling job after job after job, because the price of gas has fallen and the big oil companies aren’t making the money they were making months ago and the banks just can’t award money like they used to, due to the recent stock market crash.

    Hopefully Obama can unite the poilticians in Washington and everyone can learn to get along with each other and we can get some bills passed. I’ve grown sick and tired of the republicans voting against democrats and vice versa just because they represent a different party. Hopefully they can put their egos aside and try and rebuild this country.

  16. Smilyj says:

    Diaz is a criminal. Pierce is not. Anyone who thinks a judge that works in Pascagoula around Pascagoulans is not in favor of helping Pascagoulans and coastians with insuarance companies is kidding themselves. I’m sure Diaz would too if he benefitted from it. Kinda like Scruggs. Manipulating facts to persuade voters bty using insurance fights and Katrina is assuming everyone on the coast is stupid. Especially when they’re not on the coast. I know Pierce. He handled my sons adoption. He wasn’t just about getting it done. He made sure it was the right thing to do and involved himself unlike I expected. A very good person who gives a s*#t about what he is doing. It aint just his job. And he aint trying to get anything in return. Its better to vote according to, simply, “what is right” than “what seems like it benefits me best right now.” Alot of things in these elections simply just aint right. On both sides.

  17. Jessie Lou says:

    Give it time Smiley and Pierce will also become a criminal – it seems to happen to all of them. Power is the living, breathing intoxicant that seeps into their systems which leads to what OB talked about – the voting against each other just because of the party they are in. It is a dog eat dog mentality and they are all out for themselves, not for the constiuents who voted them there. I do not think they start out that way, but that is exactly how they end up 90% of the time.

  18. OB says:

    Besides performing my usual jury duty service I had never really seen our judicial system in the works. I also had never really watched any CSPAN and seen our representatives in Washington trying to get things done. UNTIL something that really interested me. I watched every minute of The Roger Clemens-Brian McNamee Heraings and that taught me a lot about how things work in Washington. Many of the politicians didn’t have a clue who Brian McNamee was and even Roger “Freakin” Clemens for that matter, but I watched all the Republicans tear into “Working Class” individual Brian McNamee and all the Democrats tear into “Rich, Egomaniac Roger Clemens just because they didn’t want to go against the beliefs of the rest of their party. Give me a freakin break and stand up for what’s right! Clemens cheated! McNamee is a skum bag! Prosecute both of them or go away and try and get some more important things done.

  19. Smily you are ignorant as hell. Diaz was politically targeted by Bush/Rove and acquitted not once but twice in two of the most bogus trials I’ve ever heard of.

    Pierce is not from Pascagoula, number one. Number two he was appointed by Haley Barbour. Number three he was funded by the National Chamber of Commerce which is a complete tool of big business and INSURANCE companies. Number 4 his ads against Diaz were false and unethical and his use of them should get him disbarred instead of a seat on our highest court.

    When it comes to the Supreme Court in Mississippi, I know what I’m talking about and you don’t. It’s as simple as that.

  20. Madd Dawg says:

    Well said Jessie Lou. It is sad but true.

    The only way to really change things is to take away as much power as possible from politicians and the government—–like the way the US used to be before the massive expansion of the the size and power of the government starting in the 1960’s. We did pretty well from 1776 to 1960, thank you very much. Now many people in the US look to DC to solve all of their problems, and all that does is to create more problems.

    Unfortunatley, the new administration holds the opposite view, so our country’s root problems will only get worse.

  21. face says:

    “Diaz was politically targeted by Bush/Rove and acquitted not once but twice in two of the most bogus trials I’ve ever heard of.”

    TB you always leave out the fact that the rest of the defendants were convicted in those “bogus” trials. Maybe the prosecution of Diaz was politically motivated, and he was acquitted. But you can’t say the actions of the other defendants were not criminal. Years before the trials, I can recall having several conversations with attorneys in gulfport who were adamant that the underlying trial that led to the prosecution was fixed. Did they pick and choose who to prosecute? Probably so, but there was clearly evidence of wrongdoing.

  22. face says:

    By the way, TB, none of that factored into my vote in the supreme court race!

  23. I think the prosecutions of the other defendants were political as well and even though I have never liked Wes Teel, Paul Minor or Whitfield, I think their convictions were bogus.

    Also, evidence of wrongdoing is one thing. Beyond a reasonable doubt is another altogether. And the convictions only came after Judge Wingate excluded exculpatory evidence in the second trial after allowing it in the first one. And yes, the prosecutions were selective.

    And the thrust of my response was focused on the assertion that Diaz was a criminal, when clearly he is not.

  24. MD, there was also a massive expansion of power and size in government in the 1930’s and the 2000’s, for the record.

  25. On the picks, which this original, mostly non-partisan post was about, its currently 349-147 with NC, Georgia and Missouri still out. It appears NC is Obama and the other two McCain according to the article I just read, but I’ll wait until its official before declaring a victor.

  26. Jessie Lou says:

    Paul Minor is one of those (not so rare) cases of someone who ends up jail, perhaps not for the crime he was accused of committing, but deserves to be there for something else he did that was yet to be disclosed.

    I am as lukewarm today as I was yesterday. The Dems are in charge and I hope they put their money where their mouth is and buckle down and get to work instead of continued finger pointing. Don’t waste the opportunity to make a difference and MOVE FORWARD. This may be a case of being careful what you wish for because it might come true. Why anyone would want to be President is beyond me but Obama got what he wanted so now I hope he does what he said he would/could do.

    Nancy Pelosi is another subject entirely – I’d love to be rid of her!

  27. Jessie Lou says:

    MD – I was wondering your abs were a little tighter this morning from all the wretching you must have been doing! Just remember – every dawg (pun intended) has his day. Stay tuned for the what comes next. As Matt Lauer said this morning – America loves to build someone up and they love to watch as they are torn down. A paraphrase at best, but true nonetheless.

  28. Smilyj says:

    I said he worked in Pascagoula with pascagoulans. Not from here. But it still matters. And anyone for any candidate can say “he was apponited by so and so and fundend by so and so.” Those assertions didnt work against Obama and shouldn’t be considered legitamate in this smaller circumstance. Everyone has to be funded somewhere. I’m sure there are those kinds of issues with any candidate in any election. I doubt very seriously that it was asserted that “Hey buddy if you are funded then you must do our bidding for us.” If proof of that comes out then I will change my opinions. But too say the coast deserves anything they get as it comes to insurance companies and hurricanes is much more ignorant. And I do not think you are ignorant by the way.

  29. Smilyj says:

    “Criminal” may be out of line. But the judicial system in Mississippi is looked down on nationally. I trust that the voters are not completely ignorant and voted as informed citizens, for whatever reasons. And when it comes to the supreme court in Mississippi, many people know whats going on. Or maybe just one person who knows more than anyone else should decide all the judges and not have elections.

  30. This (see link below) is what’s been going on in the Supreme Court. Jim Smith just got thrown out on his ass. It is generally opined in the legal community that with him gone, the Court will begin to follow precedent and will be less activist. I don’t believe it will change much, since the Chamber spent the money to get a majority of them installed, but I am hopeful.

    And yes, TB would be a much better choice for choosing Judges than either the electorate or the MS Governor or legislature.


  31. ZEEK says:

    I love the smell of political diatribe in the morning!! Everyone has made some interesting points above,but I’m afraid that all the dialogue between ya’ll proves that nothing will change as long as we are focused on parties ,platforms, and agendas. Most people in this country work hard for their money and are underpaid. They want good schools for their kids, affordable healthcare, decent pricing for food and clothing and gas, reasonable banking practices(mortgages), a safe neighborhood, their retirement and soc. security to be there when their older,right? This used to be a foregone conclusion in the good ole USA. Now… not so much, agreed? Everyone from the pols to their supporters are worried about partylines and blame, fingerpointing, etc. What has that helped?
    Until our politicians actually start trying to help their constituents by voting for them instead of lobbyists and special interests and voting themselves pay raises nothing will change for the better no matter who is in charge. We need term limits for congress and less pay. If these positions weren’t seen as an easy payday career that gives carte blanche to so much, maybe the silver spoons and greedy crooks would wreak havoc in other venues besides politics. The fighting and fingerpointing that has caused such a stalemate between parties has to end. Work together to make our country better, isn’t that the goal?
    Stop the waste on things aren’t as important as others, use common sense. Maybe a little less money spent on space program ( I know we need it but trillions, I mean let’s worry about America first, then Mars) and the war on drugs(yeah, how’s that working out?) and welfare(put time limit on aid and teach them a trade or free assoc. degree and tie their tubes or limit their aid to two kids no matter if they keep having them, then get them off welfare) I am rambling now, sorry, but I just hope that all these people who think Obama is going to save the world are able to handle the disappointment when the staus quo is the same in 3-4 years or more likely worse if REAL change does not occur that does not seem forthcoming.

  32. ZEEK says:

    TB, just wondering…. You valiantly defend Obama and Diaz with plenty evidence supporting your arguments and you dress it all up real nice and it actually sounds reasonable at times but I wonder if you would be singing the same tune if you thought for one minute that Obama would appoint conservatives to Supreme Court and Diaz would rule against frivolous lawsuits and/or not in your favor per se? Your take on all this mainly has to do with how it will affect you and your profession not society as a whole, which means you have an agenda my friend. Everyone has an agenda, I just think the agenda should be the greater good of the people is all
    I’m saying, not the greater good of the few.

  33. Smilyj says:

    I personally dont necessarily think TB has an agenda for himself but he does tend to get hot headed with Smilyj. Ahhhh, seems like old times..

  34. I wouldn’t call it an agenda, but certainly a bias. I think I’ve been pretty up front about my bias. All of us are guided by our personal experience and our pocketbooks when we vote.

    No, I would not be for Obama if I thought he would appoint more business biased judges. Frivolous lawsuits are few and far between. I can tell you that I reject about 90% of the cases I review and most of them because they will not justify the time and expense rather than because they have no merit. Others I talk to relate a similar experience. Diaz did not have a record of supporting frivolous lawsuits, primarily because they are so few and far between. The mass torts of the 90’s included many frivolous, really fraudulent claims. That isn’t an issue any more, and the correction for it unfortunately killed many valid lawsuits unnecessarily.

    I have been on both sides of civil litigation and I know full well the abuses that occurred back in the 1990’s for plaintiffs. That does not excuse the current abuse in favor of business.

    I may have a heightened sense of how much fair courts impact society as a whole, but it is also probably the case that society as a whole has a much lower understanding of that impact. In my view, my advocacy concerning our judicial system is very much to the benefit of society as a whole. As an example, the editorial board of one of the major medical journals recently cautioned that lawsuits are an important part of our system of protecting the public from dangerous drugs and that the FDA approval process alone is insufficient. Without litigation, more dangerous drugs will kill more people. Doctors said this.

    You raised fair questions and I’m happy to address them.

  35. Smilyj says:

    Who is this “anonymous” poster. Maybe he should be “Fatonymous” or maybe “AnonyMoose” would be fitting.

  36. ZEEK says:

    TB, I was really just taking a small jab at you for personal enjoyment, but my main point was that people will favor candidates for reasons that are important to them and everyone has different issues that matter to them. I think that too many people will not vote for one person because of just ONE issue, such as abortion, or will vote for them because OF it, even if everything else they stand for is suspect. I think we must take some bad with good and do what’s best as a whole, if it benefits a high majority it is beneficial. I don’t know, perhaps I am just too much of an idealist, I am sick of talking about all of this crap, I give up.

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