Travellinbaen

Entries tagged as ‘Election’

Is Mississippi the Nation’s Unlikely Bellwether State?

February 19, 2009 · 18 Comments

Quoted of the Day:    

Herbert Hoover

“Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt.”

“It is just as important that business keep out of government as that government keep out of business.”

“Wisdom oft times comes of knowing what to do next.”

If you’ve been around the blog awhile, you know TB’s brain travels to weird places when I’m on the road. Today, somewhere around Pelahatchie, I was listening to a radio program debate the pros and cons of the Obama mortgage rescue plan. Other than philosophical purists against any governmental intervention, most of the opposition seemed to center around people who didn’t want others to be “bailed out” for their reckless or unwise decisions while responsible people are left with nothing but increased future tax bills. Its really an unassailable position, though I take the parallel view that preventing foreclosures will help property values for everyone, thus timely bill payers like me will benefit indirectly. But mainly, my mind ignored the debate at hand and moved on to bailouts in general, spurred in that direction when the moderator mentioned Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour’s posturing about not wanting the money from the stimulus plan. I was thankful for my friends and family that he did not take that position when the Feds bailed out property owners on the coast after Katrina. 

As I reflected on Barbour’s talking points, it dawned on me that Mississippi and our Katrina bailout really set the stage for all we are seeing now. After all, federal money came in to fill the insurance void saving insurers from a public backlash that could have changed the laws affecting their business practices in Mississippi and beyond and more obviously saving Mississippi’s coastal economy from collapse by injecting massive amounts of cash into the hands of most homeowners. It was similar in many ways to the current mortgage bailout proposal that will reward a small cohort of citizens and a specific industry, this time banking and finance. I remember back then my anger at radio hosts and callers who thought the problems of these people were of their own making by choosing to live on the coast and having inadequate insurance and that nobody else in the country was getting anything out of the deal. Each subsequent bailout has been a little different in the details, but has followed the same basic model and given rise to the same basic and widespread and legitimate complaints.

Bailouts aren’t the first important political storm that saw its genesis in Mississippi. The Republican Revolution of 1994 was presaged by Kirk Fordice’s election as Mississippi’s first post Reconstruction Republican governor in 1993. In 1999, the race for Governor between Mike Parker and Ronnie Musgrove was thrown to the Mississippi House of Representatives after the popular vote ended in a virtual tie. Then in 2000, we saw Bush v. Gore and hanging chads in Florida.  And in 2007, Democratic Congressman Travis Childers won a race to fill the seat of Republican revolutionary Roger Wicker in a district that votes heavily Republican in national races, an early indicator of the Democratic wave that occured in 2008.

All of that is interesting, but this last one is a bit disconcerting. In 1927, Mississippi was struck by a great flood that remains the worst natural disaster to hit this country. Among the many lasting consequences of that flood, it contributed to and preceded the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. Katrina, the storm that topped Camille struck in 2005, preceded the stock market crash in 2008. Mississippi, partly as a result of Katrina experienced an increase in foreclosure activity beginning in 2006, beating the rest of the nation to the punch by one year. And both the Bush and Obama administrations have been telling us we are on the brink of another era of Depression.

So is all this just coincidence or is there underlying data to tie all these events together, proving my observational but undocumented and otherwise unsupported thesis? I don’t know, but as I get older I believe less and less in coincidences.

ed. note–If you’ve never read “Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How it Changed America” I recommend it highly. Among many consequences of the flood, the author provides evidence of how the storm and its aftermath helped lead to banking collapses, particularly in New Orleans, and was a major factor in the coming Depression.

Categories: History · Mississippi · Politics · current events
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Jackson County HOF Round II Results and Round III Voting Thread

February 17, 2009 · 21 Comments

Fred Cook, Jim Marsalis and Sam Leslie received enough votes to join Matthews, Buckley and Jones in the Hall. Here’s who came up short of the votes needed in this round:

  • Eddie Khayat 12 votes
  • Litterial Green 12
  • Hugh Pepper 12
  • Tony Dees 11
  • Ben Garry 10
  • Jerry Alexander 10
  • Johnny Olsen 8
  • Blair Varnes 8
  • Richard Harvey 8
  • Sarah Bailey 7
  • Erin Sims 7
  • Chuck Commiskey 7
  • Billy Miller 7
  • Kim Seaman 7
  • Verlon Biggs 6
  • Mike Moreland 5
  • Johnny Woitt 5
  • Antonio Harvey 4
  • Earl Gilbert 4
  • Calvin Huey 3
  • Kez McCorvey 3
  • Hal Lee 3
  • Eric Lane 3
  • Paul Tanner 3
  • Raymond Brown, Ray Costict, Treg Thomas, Joe Ladnier, Johnny Zelenka 1

Vote for whoever you like in Round III whether you voted in Rounds I and II or not. You also are not restricted by your prior ballot or the names on this list. Its time to get on with the process, so voting on this round closes Friday, February 20, 2009 at midnight. Then we’ll decide on the need for a special ballot and/or veterans committee ballot. Please continue to make your pitches in the old thread, which is destined for a special window in the Hall all in itself. New committee members are welcome to join in the process at any time and I hope you will continue to spread the word to anyone who might find this topic interesting. Once again, you can include 10 names on your ballot and any over that number will be disregarded along with any votes for Smily.

Categories: Mississippi · People · Sports
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Jackson County HOF Voting Thread, Round II

February 10, 2009 · 26 Comments

Like in Round I, please vote below. Make your pitch for a particular athlete in the “Official Home” thread and keep the comments here to your actual ballot. The only candidates to consider are those who received at least two votes in Round I, which are listed below or candidates who received a motion and a second in the debate thread to be included. Again, 2/3 of the voters in this round are required for induction. You are free to vote however you like, regardless of your Round I ballot. If no non-Pascagoula athletes are elected in Rounds II or III, we will have a special ballot to address the issue since most of the current committee members have a substantial Goula bias. You may vote for as many as 10 candidates in this round and any number after 10 will be disregarded, though the top 10 will be counted. This round will close at midnight Monday, February 16, 2009.

ROUND II BALLOT (choose up to 10):

  • Sam Leslie
  • Tony Dees
  • Fred Cook
  • Jim Marsalis
  • Blair Varnes
  • Verlon Biggs
  • Ray Costict
  • Ben Garry
  • Hugh Pepper
  • Billy Miller
  • Jerry Alexander
  • Johnny Woitt
  • Johnny Olsen
  • Chuck Commiskey
  • Hal Lee
  • Eric Lane
  • Kim Seaman
  • Mike Moreland
  • Sarah Bailey
  • Erin Sims
  • Kez McCorvey
  • Litterial Green
  • Richard Harvey
  • Treg Thomas
  • Earl Gilbert
  • Paul Tanner
  • Raymond Brown
  • Antonio Harvey
  • Eddie Khayat
  • Calvin Huey

Categories: Mississippi · People · Sports
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Obama Wins, TB’s Ten-Cent Analysis

November 5, 2008 · 33 Comments

Quote of the Day     “And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you. And to all those who have wondered if Americas beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.     –President Elect, Barack Obama

It looks like Obama ended up winning about 52% of the popular vote last night along with a commanding majority in the Electoral College. Comparing the popular vote with our last four elections, it was a strong majority. It was roughly equivalent to Bush’s win over Dukakis, and it was substantially below either of Reagan’s margins. So what does it mean? 

I think Obama has a mandate to change US policy abroad, but not in a wholesale manner, assuming he even wants to. What I expect to see is a lot more diplomacy and less heavy handedness in our negotiating style. I hope and believe that a change in the White House will lead to America regaining a leadership position in the world rather than trying to enforce domination upon it. A little more carrot and a little less stick, to coin a phrase. That does not mean I think Obama will be weak. As a matter of fact, I fear more that he will feel compelled to turn to the military more quickly than necessary in order to stave off accusations of weakness. Discounting Bush the Younger, our left leaning Presidents have historically done just that while our right wing leaders have often succeeded unexpectedly in diplomacy. The greatest example of that is probably Nixon going to China, something no Democrat would have been able to do without being damaged politically. On the other hand, it was Democrats Truman, Kennedy, and Johnson that got us into wars along with W. But I think Obama will use good judgment, particularly in surrounding himself with thinkers rather than ideologues. Time will tell.

On the home front, I will candidly say this was not the tsunami I was expecting or hoping for. Still, it was a huge Democratic victory with either 5 or 6 Senate seats gained and around 24 House seats. The two races I was watching most closely were the Senate campaigns in North Carolina and Minnesota. In Minnesota, it looks like Norm Coleman will hang on–a very surprising result in my eyes from a “liberal” state in the midst of a Democratic wave. On the other hand, in moderately conservative North Carolina, Libby Dole was soundly defeated. It was a split decision in the culture wars. I believe Dole lost due to her despicable ad trying to convince voters her opponent, a Sunday School teacher, was godless. I don’t have an opinion as to why Coleman hung on. But I do have a ten-cent opinion on what the elections told us, from President down through Congress.

The Republican Party lives and remains strong. Conservative ideas are alive. But outside the Confederacy, southern dominated conservative politics are dead as a doornail. Only in the deep south do campaigns focused on race or sexual orientation or McCarthyism style demagoguery still thrive. The rest of the country is fed up with it, and the outer edges of the South are getting there. Southern style social conservatives are consuming the old Reagan coalition. As I have said on this blog many times, I think the conservative thesis that all government is bad is simply wrong. It is, like all generalizations, overly broad. However, conservatism focused on limiting government’s power still makes good sense. Tyranny by corporations replaced by tyranny of bureaucrats is no good trade. If the thinking conservatives can re-take their party from the religious fundamentalists, false patriots and race baiters, it will not be long before they reassert their strength. In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see whether the Romney wing of the party or the Palin wing wrests control. Huckabee is a wild card who would probably make a good leader if he’d just get educated on evolution and when the dinosaurs lived.

As for the Democrats, the election shows the country believes there is a place for progressive ideas and legislation. We have heard it so long that most accept it to be true without question or consideration–America is a center-right country. TB accepts nothing without question or consideration when it comes to politics. In my opinion, such a statement is another over-generalization. There are so many issues. To say we are collectively center-right is both a misstatement and non-sensical. On gun ownership, we are far right. On taxes, we are center. On freedom of speech, press, and religion, we are far left. On new issues, like global warming and alternative energy, it remains to be seen. I believe we are center-left on what will become, maybe has become, one of the most important issues of the day. My point is, each issue is different and no simple categorization is sufficient to define a country as large and varied as the USA.

I am looking forward to the Obama Presidency. I have high expectations of him. They are not so much in what accomplishments I expect as they are in how his administration conducts itself. I expect integrity, respect for civil liberties and human rights, strong and sensible diplomacy and political courage. If he indeed has these traits, as it has appeared to me over the last two years, his tenure will be a success.

Categories: Politics · Ten Cent Analysis · current events
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Election Day Pickin

November 3, 2008 · 36 Comments

Quote of the Day     “For the love of God, do whatever in the hell you wanna do about President or Senator, but please vote for Oliver Diaz or Jim Kitchens for Mississippi Supreme Court if they are on your ballot.”     –Travellinbaen

It seems every news website is running a prediction contest for the election results tomorrow. TB is slightly offended by this, seeing as how this site runs the premier college football pickem game on all the web. Not to be outdone, I offer you the opportunity to make your picks on the election here as well. Keep in mind, its what you think will happen, not who you are voting for necessarily. For bonus points, add in your network of choice for following returns, favorite newscaster and pundit, and whether you will consider quitting your job and/or moving to Canada if your side loses. Predictions open until 5pm Tuesday.

The categories–

Presidential electoral votes (must equal 538)

Democrats/Republicans in Senate 

Democrats/Republicans in House

Musgrove/Wicker winner

Popular vote percentage for President

Travellinbaen will be sittin at home, sippin on some red wine if my guy wins to channel my inner elitist. I’ll be watchin MSNBC and switchin over to Fox, depending on how things are goin. I like Carville best, but I’m into Olbermann right now for his righteous, leftist, indignity, and I gotta go with Shepherd Smith for favorite news reader. As for a conservative pundit, I like George Will.

I’m predicting Obama wins 53% of the popular vote and wins the electoral vote 372-166. Wicker wins MS Senate, and the Dems have 59-41 Senate advantage (counting 2 independents) and 265-164 Dem advantage in the House. If I get wiped out, again, in this election, I won’t move to Canada, though I’d relish a year in British Columbia. I may consider a move to Oregon or Colorado however. And I won’t be able to quit my job as it will probably quit me.

Categories: Mississippi · Politics
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The Last Debate

October 15, 2008 · 5 Comments

Quote of the Day     “I don’t know what they call themselves doing but it ain’t debating.”     Smily in the previous post (here)

Does anybody need to watch this “debate” tonight? Are you undecided? If so, please respond to this post and explain what you are still waiting to find out and if you expect to (or do) hear it in the debates. I’m really curious. SC addressed the question of who is left that’s undecided a few weeks ago here, but what I want to post about this afternoon is what would make the debates worth watching. Here are my questions. I haven’t heard them asked in the first two, or anywhere else for that matter.

  • “Name three issues typically associated with the other party that you agree with?” If they can’t come up with them, follow up with, “how are we supposed to believe you are going to do anything in bipartisan manner if you can’t name three things of substance you have in common?”
  • To McCain, “what do you have to say to the people who think Obama is Muslim or a terrorist sympathizer.”
  • To Obama, “what do you have to say to the people who think McCain is morally deficient as evidenced by his involvement in the Keating 5 scandal and committing adultery while married to his first wife?”
  • “Is there a percentage of the overall Federal Budget that you think Military spending or Entitlement spending should not exceed, and if so, what is it?”
  • “Name your biggest three errors in judgment in your political careers on policy matters.” Follow up with either “what did you learn?” or “if you can’t recall a mistake of substance, how are we to believe you will recognize and correct future mistakes and be honest about addressing them?” This was asked of Bush in ’04 (not the follow up) and he famously and idiotically was unable to name anything he’d take back.
  • “What percentage of all taxes paid do you believe the group of people making over one million dollars a year should pay and the group of people making under seventy-five thousand should pay?”
  • “What will you do, if anything, to collect taxes from large corporations?”  Here’s the link to the article stating most corporations pay nothing.
There’s a lot more I’d ask if they’d ever turn the moderatin over to TB, but this is a start. I also think there ought to be a BS panel to make the telecast more interesting. Every time they start to use talking points, obvious scripted lines or over-generalizations, we’d buzz them–the first time gives the candidate a minor shock, number two mutes them for five minutes, number three drops them through a trap door into a pool of water. Really, they ought to put me in charge.
Y’all let me know what happens. I’m decided, they won’t ask my questions, and I ain’t watchin. I’ll be working on the Thursday pick’em post.

Categories: Politics · current events
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Anybody Else Sick of the Campaigns?

October 14, 2008 · 3 Comments

Quote of the Day    ”My friends, let’s get out of here. I’ve got a fridge full of beer at the house, if you can just help me find it.”     TB’s fictional John McCain, misquoted

How long has this been going on? It seems like just a decade ago TB was dreading the candidacy of Hillary, supporting Edwards for his morality and deriding Obama as delusional for believing a black man could win a major party’s nomination for President. It was around the same time John McCain was relevant and Sarah Palin was having anonymous cat fights with her ex-brother in law’s new girlfriend. I realize the USA loves its antiquated traditions. Although the rest of the civilized world has moved on, many of us don’t want to give up on our age old All American practices of allowing corporations to run our lives, shooting one another, or hating soccer, and of course, interminable election cycles. But TB has an idea of liberal, even radical progress, I truly believe could garner bipartisan support. Let’s shorten the election season.

Only American elections have a season that makes NASCAR’s seem reasonable in length. The primary campaigns start the day after the mid-term elections. They go on for most of a year. Then, after a couple of bye weeks, we ramp back up for 3 months more, a playoff season that makes the NBA’s look lightning fast.

In the not too distant past, this made sense. Back then, there were no twenty-four hour news channels and no internet. There were no national newspapers. If candidates wanted you to know much about them, they had to hop a train and give speeches at each whistle stop. They had to come to your local town’s rubber chicken club and speak. They had to eat pie in diners, not to get their picture made, but because they liked pie.

All this isn’t necessary any more. We have 26 cable news networks, chain emails and blogs to get the word out about candidates. The candidates own planes and buses and Joe Biden rides the train. You can get good pie from the grocery store nowadays.

Here’s the plan. The primaries are held in August and September of election year. We divide the country into 4 regions and rotate which goes first and last and the states in each region hold their primaries on the same day. The political conventions are abolished–who needs ‘em? Campaign, blog and send bogus chain emails like hell all October then vote and be done with it in November. That’s a sensible season–training camp, regular season and championship, nice and tidy.

Think of the money it would save! Think of the sanity it would preserve! Think of the email space that would be freed! And in all seriousness, think of the political anger that would possibly be lessened, just a bit. The longer these things go, the more attached we become to people and ideas that often are at odds with our own. And Sarah Palin wouldn’t have to start her 2012 campaign in the midst of McCain’s 2008 one.

Of course, she’s delusional if she thinks she’ll ever get the nomination.

Categories: Humor · Politics
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Winning Debate Strategies

October 2, 2008 · 3 Comments

One of TB’s favorite books is The Screwtape Letters, by C.S. Lewis. Thanks to Greeg/Satan’s appearance last week, henceforth Screwtape on this page, and thanks to the inanity of the debate I was half-heartedly watching tonight, my mind travelled back to that great work. For those unfamiliar, Screwtape is a highly ranked demon who is mentoring his young nephew on the methods by which the minions of Hell can influence people and win them away from God. It’s a funny book in many ways, and its a book that will make you consider in a deep and methodical way the views you have and why you have them. Though its area of focus is religion, the ideas Lewis conjures apply across the board. As to elections in general, and this election in particular,  I think we are constantly subjected to a barrage of influence and argument inspired by those who employ Screwtape’s (the original–not Greeg) methods. 

I copied a passage from Screwtape’s first letter to his nephew Wormwood advising him on how to corrupt a man he is charged with winning that illustrates what I mean.

Quote of the Day

  ”I note what you say about guiding our patient’s reading and taking care that he sees a good deal of his materialist friend. But are you not being a trifle naïf? It sounds as if you supposed that argument was the way to keep him out of the Enemy’s clutches. That might have been so if he had lived a few centuries earlier. At that time the humans still knew pretty well when a thing was proved and when it was not; and if it was proved they really believed it. They still connected thinking with doing and were prepared to alter their way of life as the result of a chain of reasoning. But what with the weekly press and other such weapons we have largely altered that. Your man has been accustomed, ever since he was a boy, to have a dozen incompatible philosophies dancing about together inside his head. He doesn’t think of doctrines as primarily “true” of “false”, but as “academic” or “practical”, “outworn” or “contemporary”, “conventional” or “ruthless”. Jargon, not argument, is your best ally in keeping him from the Church. Don’t waste time trying to make him think that materialism is true! Make him think it is strong, or stark, or courageous—that it is the philosophy of the future. That’s the sort of thing he cares about.

     “The trouble about argument is that it moves the whole struggle onto the Enemy’s own ground. He can argue too; whereas in really practical propaganda of the kind I am suggesting He has been shown for centuries to be greatly the inferior of Our Father Below. By the very act of arguing, you awake the patient’s reason; and once it is awake, who can foresee the result? Even if a particular train of thought can be twisted so as to end in our favour, you will find that you have been strengthening in your patient the fatal habit of attending to universal issues and withdrawing his attention from the stream of immediate sense experiences. Your business is to fix his attention on the stream. Teach him to call it “real life” and don’t let him ask what he means by “real”.

      Remember, he is not, like you, a pure spirit. Never having been a human (Oh that abominable advantage of the Enemy’s!) you don’t realise how enslaved they are to the pressure of the ordinary. I once had a patient, a sound atheist, who used to read in the British Museum. One day, as he sat reading, I saw a train of thought in his mind beginning to go the wrong way. The Enemy, of course, was at his elbow in a moment. Before I knew where I was I saw my twenty years’ work beginning to totter. If I had lost my head and begun to attempt a defence by argument I should have been undone. But I was not such a fool. I struck instantly at the part of the man which I had best under my control and suggested that it was just about time he had some lunch. The Enemy presumably made the counter-suggestion (you know how one can never quite overhear What He says to them?) that this was more important than lunch. At least I think that must have been His line for when I said “Quite. In fact much too important to tackle it the end of a morning”, the patient brightened up considerably; and by the time I had added “Much better come back after lunch and go into it with a fresh mind”, he was already half way to the door. Once he was in the street the battle was won. I showed him a newsboy shouting the midday paper, and a No. 73 bus going past, and before he reached the bottom of the steps I had got into him an unalterable conviction that, whatever odd ideas might come into a man’s head when he was shut up alone with his books, a healthy dose of “real life” (by which he meant the bus and the newsboy) was enough to show him that all “that sort of thing” just couldn’t be true. He knew he’d had a narrow escape and in later years was fond of talking about “that inarticulate sense for actuality which is our ultimate safeguard against the aberrations of mere logic”. He is now safe in Our Father’s house.”

If you are interested in reading more, visit your local library, or click this link

Categories: Life · Philosobaen · Politics
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GOP = Big Government, Big Spending, Socialists

September 22, 2008 · 34 Comments

Quote of the Day      ”As with the Christian religion, the worst advertisement for socialism is its adherents.”      –George Orwell

It can’t be plausibly denied any longer. During the Bush administration it started with the creation of the Department of Homeland Security. This new cabinet level department was a massive increase in the size of government. What have we gotten from it? Record breaking duct tape sales, secret government wiretapping and a botched hurricane rescue and recovery effort. Speaking of Katrina…Because of Republican success in stripping the courts of fair minded judges and replacing them with Chamber of Commerce politicians, and because of Republican laissez-faire regulations toward insurance companies, and because of lax Republican enforcement of antitrust laws, and Republican financed propaganda attacking lawyers, all of which occured over most of the last thirty years and accelerated over the last eight, the insurance companies were allowed to pay only a fraction of the cost of recovery. They denied claims where they could find or manufacture an excuse and when flood insurance was available they allocated most of the damages to that program, financed by the government. The insurance cabal had record profits that year, and throughout the first seven Bush years. Since there was no private entity to absorb the losses that come as the natural risk of obtaining those profits, the Republicans passed a huge homeowner bailout program that sent hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to fill the gaps left by State Farm and Allstate. It was socialism. 

And now this. Seven Hundred Billion dollars (insert pinky into side of mouth while reading that number). Maybe more. Eliminate regulatory rules and oversight, install political hacks to the positions where minimal oversight could still be done in order to ensure that it was not, ignore predatory lending schemes and destroy the legal recourse that lawyers were using to keep the mortgage companies reined in, and you end up with a mortgage bubble. Bubbles burst. Conservatives are all for bubbles–that’s what happens in what they inaccurately describe as free markets. Years of prosperity followed by years of panic. From 1800 through 1930, there was a “Panic” about once every 18 years, almost always instigated by real estate speculation and during a time when there was very little government oversight of markets. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it. But these days, Socialists insure the investors when the bubble bursts by using their government power to buy up worthless stock and loans. Big government to the rescue–don’t conservatives hate that? Republicans don’t.

So what has eight years of George Bush has done for us in the realm of the economy? After spending almost two trillion dollars on the Iraq war and financial bailouts, your taxes and mine are going up. It doesn’t matter who is elected. That money has to be paid back, or at the very least the debt must be substantially reduced to restore our economic prosperity. So vote Republican if you have some other reason, just don’t tell me it’s because you are conservative, you want lower taxes and you are saving us from socialism. Because the GOP has firmly established that they are a party of bigger government, runaway spending, and socialism.

Finally, enjoy this humorous take on the same subject from Time Magazine.

USA = France

Categories: Money · Politics
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Premature Jocularity?

September 9, 2008 · 26 Comments

Quote of the Day    It’s not so important who starts the game as who finishes it.      –John Wooden

In college basketball, sixty-four teams have a theoretical shot to win the national championship by winning the tournament held at the end of the season. Other than seeding, going undefeated until the first game of the tournament gains you nothing. What often occurs, is a team goes on an extended winning streak in the middle of the year, winning smaller tournaments, their league title or even a conference tournament championship, only to lose in the early rounds of the national championship tournament. They peak too early. The most successful teams manage to let their seasons build gradually, saving their best play for the last six games.

TB warned the Obama campaign back in early June about the risk of peaking too early in the “Advice for Obama” post. It seemed like he tried to lay low for a couple of months so as not to keep the energy from his primary campaign crowds at a fever pitch for too long.  I think that was wise, but now he has the difficult task of regaining the momentum. His speech in Denver was one of the best I’ve seen and really doesn’t even belong in the same discussion with Sarah Palin’s, much less McCain’s. But in the same discussion it is. Obama is a long way from regaining his peak form. His best hope is the primary excitement will come to seem like last “season” for voters and he can repeat the performance in this new “season.” He actually may have benefitted from the Palin hoopla toning down his “early season” victory by suffering an unexpected “loss.”

On the other hand, McCain’s campaign has been remarkable to this point.  In many ways, his nomination was even more unlikely than Obama’s. Just over a year ago he was being written off as a viable candidate after his campaign went broke and laid off almost the entire staff. Then, by process of elimination, he found himself virtually unopposed and the winner of his party’s nomination. Because it was less what he did and more how others screwed up, he did not have to peak to get that far. He was slow and steady. After closing the gap and lying low during Obama’s coronation, he sandbagged all of us by selecting Palin as his running mate. The media has gone nuts for her because they love a new story, much like they had gone nuts for Obama a year ago. He’s suddenly on a winning streak.

Now, McCain finds himself in the lead for the first time. But has he peaked?  My guess is the love affair with Palin will not endure for two reasons: one, I just don’t believe she’s as smart or charismatic as she is being portrayed, though we won’t really know until she’s off the leash and allowed to speak for herself; two, in the coming weeks, the focus will return to Obama and McCain.  But that doesn’t exactly answer my own question, does it?  The fact is I can’t answer it.  Eight weeks is an eternity in politics. There is no historical American race that compares with this one.  Is it a new era? Will all those new Obama voters remain excited and continue his unprecedented turnout? Have I underestimated the Palin effect on single issue women voters and/or a reenergized fundamentalist base? I’ll be anxiously and eagerly waiting to find out which side can perform best now that its time to play for the championship.

Categories: Politics · current events
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